Exploring Competitive Trading Bilateral Contracts Market (CTBCM) through Fingertips’ Model

Pakistan’s electricity sector is at a historic turning point. After decades under the Single-Buyer Model, which concentrated procurement through CPPA-G and fueled high costs and circular debt, the Competitive Trading Bilateral Contracts Market (CTBCM) was launched on May 31, 2022, allowing bulk consumers of 1 MW or more to buy directly from generators. Today, Pakistan has 46.6 GW of installed capacity, with peak demand projected to reach 29 GW by 2025, circular debt at 2.4 trillion PKR, and FY24 capacity payments totaling 1.9 trillion PKR. This report offers a data-driven analysis of CTBCM’s origins, current operations, future outlook to 2030, and implications for industry and policy, based on verified sources including NEPRA, CPPA-G, NTDC, IEEFA, World Bank, and ADB.