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Category: Energy Transition

  • Understanding Pakistan’s Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract Market (CTBCM)

    Pakistan’s electricity sector is undergoing its most significant structural reform in decades. The Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract Market (CTBCM) replaces the traditional single-buyer model with a competitive wholesale market, allowing large industrial consumers (1MW demand and above) to procure electricity directly from licensed generators through bilateral contracts, using the national grid via “wheeling.” Backed by S.R.O. 92/(I)/2026 and administered by the newly established Independent System Market Operator (ISMO) under NEPRA’s regulatory oversight, the market has moved from policy design into active implementation, with a live auction platform, defined connection timelines, and node-specific renewable energy data now available to participants. For export-oriented industries such as textiles and sports apparel, where electricity is a major production cost, CTBCM opens a legal pathway to negotiate direct power supply, access renewable energy, and strengthen export competitiveness.

    The opportunity, however, comes with important caveats. The first auction covers 200 MW (modified to 400 MW) within an 800 MW quantum planned over five years, with participation capped at 160 MW per firm and requiring substantial financial commitments, including bid bonds and performance guarantees. Critically, winning auction access does not guarantee cheaper electricity, since the final cost depends on wheeling charges, grid surcharges, and cross-subsidy structures still being finalized by NEPRA. Battery energy storage (BESS) is emerging as a core design element, with policy favoring roughly 10% storage capacity to ensure firm power delivery alongside variable renewable generation. Industrial firms are encouraged to begin readiness assessments now, reviewing eligibility, metering compliance, and engaging qualified legal and commercial advisors, while treating this first auction as a market learning phase rather than a basis for major investment decisions.

    This guide explains CTBCM’s market structure, the auction mechanism, buyer and seller roles, renewable energy pathways, benefits, limitations, and practical readiness steps for industrial firms. It is not a legal or regulatory advisory document, and all firm-specific decisions should involve qualified advisors and official guidance from ISMO and NEPRA.

    CTBCM Guide v8 finalDownload

  • Brand–Supplier Shared Responsibility: Advancing Renewable Energy Transition in Pakistan’s Textile Sector

    Pakistan’s textile, sports, and apparel industries are vital to the country’s economy but face growing pressure from global climate regulations and rising energy costs. While manufacturers must adopt sustainable and low-carbon practices to remain competitive, many struggle with the high costs of renewable energy and green technology upgrades. Short-term sourcing models further discourage long-term investment, creating an urgent need for a more balanced and collaborative approach to sustainability across the supply chain.

    A shared responsibility model can help accelerate the industry’s green transition by encouraging global brands to actively support suppliers through co-investment, long-term purchasing agreements, and technical assistance. Collaborative initiatives and partnerships with international organizations can unlock affordable green financing, support compliance with global environmental standards, and help Pakistan maintain trade advantages such as GSP+ status. By adopting a system-wide strategy focused on collective climate action, the industry can strengthen its resilience, sustainability, and global competitiveness for the future.

    Brand–Supplier Shared Responsibility_FinalDownload

  • Impact of NEPRA Prosumer Regulations 2026: A Case Study for Textile Sector

    Pakistan’s rooftop solar sector has reached a critical policy crossroads, where the economics of distributed energy are being reshaped by regulatory choices rather than technology costs. NEPRA’s shift from net-metering to net-billing, which changes how industrial prosumers are compensated for energy exported to the grid, has significant consequences for energy-intensive industries like textile mills that are already navigating cost pressures and international sustainability expectations. The core finding of this study is that settlement design, not panel prices, now determines whether rooftop solar remains a viable investment for industrial consumers at different scales.

    While larger and medium-sized firms have pathways to adapt through storage integration and commercial arrangements, smaller enterprises face real risks of financial marginalisation or outright disconnection from the grid. The study argues that net-billing is not inherently a bad policy, but implemented in isolation, it risks slowing solar adoption, reducing grid visibility, and ultimately shifting costs onto the consumers least able to bear them. A well-sequenced transition that rewards flexibility, recognises storage, and enables aggregation can align private investment with system-wide needs, and the regulatory choices made now will determine whether Pakistan’s distributed energy momentum becomes a managed asset or a missed opportunity.

    Comprehensive Study on Impact of Prosumer regulations 2026 on Textile SectorDownload

  • Exploring Competitive Trading Bilateral Contracts Market (CTBCM) through Fingertips’ Model

    Pakistan’s electricity sector is at a historic turning point. After decades under the Single-Buyer Model, which concentrated procurement through CPPA-G and fueled high costs and circular debt, the Competitive Trading Bilateral Contracts Market (CTBCM) was launched on May 31, 2022, allowing bulk consumers of 1 MW or more to buy directly from generators. Today, Pakistan has 46.6 GW of installed capacity, with peak demand projected to reach 29 GW by 2025, circular debt at 2.4 trillion PKR, and FY24 capacity payments totaling 1.9 trillion PKR. This report offers a data-driven analysis of CTBCM’s origins, current operations, future outlook to 2030, and implications for industry and policy, based on verified sources including NEPRA, CPPA-G, NTDC, IEEFA, World Bank, and ADB.

    CTBCM Pakistan Analysis_Mashood Urfi_ADS_March 2026Download

  • Energy Landscape and Emission Analysis of Pakistan’s Leather Industry

    This study covers Pakistan’s leather and leather products value chain, from hides and skins supply through tannery processing to finished goods such as apparel, handbags, and gloves. It focuses on reducing environmental impacts, improving energy efficiency, increasing the use of renewable and cleaner energy in tanneries, and strengthening governance, policy, institutional coordination, and financing to enable an energy and clean-fuel transition.

    It aims to (1) map the sector’s energy demand by process and cluster using secondary data supported by field-validated measurements, (2) estimate emissions-reduction potential from feasible renewable and cleaner-fuel interventions, and (3) identify institutional, regulatory, and technical constraints and propose practical policy, financing, and operational pathways for scalable decarbonization and environmental protection.

    The study’s contribution is a sector-specific assessment that integrates field evidence from major leather clusters with national energy statistics, policy review, and international sustainability benchmarks, linking process-level energy use to implementable recommendations.

    Leather Study Changed (19-2-2026) (upload)Download

  • Roadmap for Rapid Solarization of Pakistan’s Textile Clusters

    (Faisalabad & Multan)

    This roadmap provides a compact, implementable plan to accelerate renewable energy uptake in Pakistan’s key textile clusters Ii). Faisalabad and (ii). Multan. It explains the workable off-grid and on-grid pathways available to textile firms, clarifies wheeling economics by identifying current constraints and proposing tariff options, and presents feasible CTBCM (competitive trading bilateral contract market) scenarios. It is structured for execution, with defined actions, timelines, and responsibility assignments for the textile industry, NEPRA, ISMO, and other relevant market actors.

    The roadmap focuses on three deliverables: enabling rapid private deployment of distributed solar with a clear pathway for SMEs; enabling larger centralized renewable projects that reduce system LCOE and increase avoided CO₂; and implementing CTBCM with transitional safeguards, phased and differentiated wheeling, clear metering and settlement rules, and MRV integration to support CBAM-related compliance requirements.

    Textile production in Faisalabad and Multan is energy-intensive and reliability-constrained, leading mills to rely on a mixed energy stack (grid, gas, diesel backup, and increasing solar). Solarization can reduce unit energy costs, limit outage-related losses, and reduce export compliance exposure, but scale depends on bankable wheeling economics, settlement clarity, and a CTBCM design that is accessible beyond large consumers. Without transitional policy, the benefits of market access and centralized projects will concentrate among larger firms, while SMEs remain excluded by cost and access barriers.

    Roadmap for Rapid Solarization_ADSDownload