Pakistan’s rooftop solar sector has reached a critical policy crossroads, where the economics of distributed energy are being reshaped by regulatory choices rather than technology costs. NEPRA’s shift from net-metering to net-billing, which changes how industrial prosumers are compensated for energy exported to the grid, has significant consequences for energy-intensive industries like textile mills that are already navigating cost pressures and international sustainability expectations. The core finding of this study is that settlement design, not panel prices, now determines whether rooftop solar remains a viable investment for industrial consumers at different scales.
While larger and medium-sized firms have pathways to adapt through storage integration and commercial arrangements, smaller enterprises face real risks of financial marginalisation or outright disconnection from the grid. The study argues that net-billing is not inherently a bad policy, but implemented in isolation, it risks slowing solar adoption, reducing grid visibility, and ultimately shifting costs onto the consumers least able to bear them. A well-sequenced transition that rewards flexibility, recognises storage, and enables aggregation can align private investment with system-wide needs, and the regulatory choices made now will determine whether Pakistan’s distributed energy momentum becomes a managed asset or a missed opportunity.